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imd predicts near normal southwest monsoon season rainfall for 2019
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its first stage operational forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in 2019 of its two stages forecast. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June.

The Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal. Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

Weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.

IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week of June 2019.

The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole assigns 17% forecast probability for deficient rainfall (less than 90% of LPA), 32% forecast probability for below rainfall (90-96% of LPA), 39% forecast probability for near normal rainfall (96-104% of LPA), 10 forecast probability for above normal rainfall (104-110% of LPA) and 2% forecast probability for excess rainfall (more than 110% of LPA).

Forecast suggests that the 2019 Southwest monsoon rainfall is likely to be near normal. However, there is very less chance for the monsoon rainfall to be above normal or excess.

Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing Kharif season.

The forecast based on the CFS model suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2019 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 94% ± 5% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

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